Drones over Poland. Fighter jets above Estonia. Surveillance planes over the Baltic Sea.
To U.S. allies in Europe, the pattern is unmistakable: A deliberate campaign of escalation from the Kremlin, designed to probe NATO’s defenses and political resolve.
The question hanging over an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday is how exactly the alliance will respond.
As NATO struggles to turn alarm into action, officials and analysts urged a more forceful response and warned that hesitation risks emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin. But questions about U.S. support, escalation risks and what this growing threat means for Ukraine remain unresolved.
Estonia, which called for the Security Council meeting after three Russian MiG-31 fighter aircraft entered its airspace for 12 minutes without permission last week, pressed members to address what it described as a “blatant, reckless, and flagrant violation of NATO airspace” and Russia’s “repeated violations of international law.”
Russia’s actions “undermine principles vital to the security of all U.N. member states,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said Sunday in a post on X.
Claims that Russia violated Estonian airspace were “baseless” and “aimed at escalating tensions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday, adding that Russia operated within international regulations.
So far, NATO’s response has largely been limited to meeting rooms as Moscow’s probing exposes a contrast between European leaders’ urgent calls for action and President Donald Trump’s more muted response.
Asked by reporters Sunday whether Washington would come to the defense of Poland and the Baltic states if Russia attacks, Trump said: “Yeah I would.”
And on Monday Mike Walz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations told the Security Council meeting that the events left “the impression either Russia wants to escalate or doesn’t have full control of its fighter planes and drones.” Either scenario, he said, was “very disconcerting.”
The U.S. “will defend every inch of NATO territory,” he said, adding that he expected “Russia to seek ways to de escalate, not risk expansion.”
At the same meeting, Britain’s Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper also warned that Russia’s incursions into NATO territory risked triggering an armed conflict.
“Your reckless actions risk direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia. Our alliance is defensive but be under no illusion we stand ready to defend NATO’s skies and NATO’s territory,” she said. “If we need to confront planes operating in NATO space without permission then we will do so,” she added.
This drew an immediate rebuke from Moscow, which dismissed Europe’s concerns as groundless and hysterical.
NATO’s response to this ratcheting Russian activity amounts to the launch of operation “Eastern Sentry” earlier this month to bolster the defense of Europe’s eastern flank in response to a series of Russian drone incursions over Poland.
After Germany and Sweden scrambled fighter jets Sunday to intercept and track a Russian surveillance plane flying unidentified over the Baltic Sea, one regional leader said Russia was not just testing NATO’s response, but was also aiming to reduce support for Ukraine by compelling countries to redirect resources.
Calibrating how to respond to Russia was not easy, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said on social media, adding that Russia was doing just enough not to cross a red line.
European confidence about backing from Washington has been shaken by Ukraine, where Trump has so far stopped short of imposing his promised punishment of further sanctions on the Kremlin for refusing peace talks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he was preparing for an “intense week” at the U.N. General Assembly in New York, where he hopes to build support for efforts to stop Russia’s invasion.
Ukraine has also submitted a request to attend the Security Council meeting and present its position.
But Europe’s security will require decisive action, and that will not happen at a Security Council meeting, “for the very simple reason that Russia has a veto on the council,” said Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank
Unable to rely on Trump’s “shifting position” on Russia, Giles told NBC News, the “coalition of the willing” — European nations that say they are prepared to underwrite security guarantees for Ukraine — must become the “coalition of the able and actually doing something.”
Poland will not hesitate to shoot down objects that violate its airspace and pose a threat, its prime minister said Monday. But, he said, his country would take a more cautious approach when dealing with situations that are less clear-cut, and would need to know it had its allies’ support.
“You really need to think twice before deciding on actions that could trigger a very acute phase of conflict,” Donald Tusk told a news conference.
Hesitation, analysts said, risks sending a dangerous signal.
“Europe and NATO have to show the will to respond forcefully to Russia,” said Moritz Brake, a senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies.
“Russia is trying to gauge whether it’s possible to single out individual elements of the alliance,” he said in a phone interview.
A forceful approach, Brake argued, would involve not just intercepting Russian aircraft, but also sending “manned fighter jets” that could shoot Russian jets down “at any minute.”
As an example, he pointed to 2015, when NATO member Turkey shot down a Russian warplane seconds after it violated the country’s airspace near the Syrian border. Moscow did not retaliate militarily.
“Russia didn’t declare war on Turkey,” Brake said. “Wavering is much more dangerous than a forceful approach.”